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Risk Terrain Modeling

Crime Prediction and Risk Reduction

Joel M. Caplan (Author), Leslie W. Kennedy (Author)


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Imagine using an evidence-based risk management model that enables researchers and practitioners alike to analyze the spatial dynamics of crime, allocate resources, and implement custom crime and risk reduction strategies that are transparent, measurable, and effective. Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) diagnoses the spatial attractors of criminal behavior and makes accurate forecasts of where crime will occur at the microlevel. RTM informs decisions about how the combined factors that contribute to criminal behavior can be targeted, connections to crime can be monitored, spatial vulnerabilities can be assessed, and actions can be taken to reduce worst effects. 
As a diagnostic method, RTM offers a statistically valid way to identify vulnerable places. To learn more, visit and begin using RTM with the many free tutorials and resources.  
List of Figures
List of Tables

1. Explaining the Contexts of Crime
2. Risk Terrain Modeling Methods
3. Crime Emergence, Persistence, and Exposure
4. Presence, Repeats, and Concentration: Exposures to Crime
5. The Theory of Risky Places
6. Event Contexts of Risky Places
7. Risk Management and RTM in ACTION
8. Risk Reduction

Joel M. Caplan is Associate Professor at Rutgers University, School of Criminal Justice.

Leslie W. Kennedy is University Professor at Rutgers University, School of Criminal Justice, where he served as Dean from 1998–2007.

"Within the last few years, risk terrain modeling (RTM) has truly opened up a new way of mapping crime. This book describes this heuristic approach and its statistical method step by step, using many examples and case studies. Police officers, researchers, and crime mappers and analysts will find new keys and new means to act at the microplace against crime. Enjoy this book!"—Jean-Luc Besson, Geostatistician at the French National Supervisory Body on Crime and Punishment , Professor, National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts, Paris 2 University 

"Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is arguably the most significant advancement in spatial crime analysis this past decade. RTM not only helps us understand the nature of spatial crime patterns, but identifies what can be done to reduce risk and where that risk reduction should take place. In this book, Joel M. Caplan and Leslie W. Kennedy skillfully articulate its theoretical and empirical foundations, the steps to undertake the risk analysis, comparisons with other methods, and a number of worked examples. This is one of those books that should be required reading for researchers, policy makers, and practitioners who are interested in crime risk reduction."—Martin A. Andresen, Professor, School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University, Canada


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